Week 1 NFL Odds: Commanders Cake Not Fully Baked

The Jayden Daniels era begins this Sunday as the Washington Commanders play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET, and the Week 1 NFL odds have the Commies as 3-3.5 dogs, depending on where you look.

Can the Commanders start the season strong against the defending NFC South champions?

Here are my best bets for this week’s tilt in Tampa.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (DraftKings)

All eyes are on Daniels. He’s the possible savior of the long-suffering Washington franchise, and the hopes of the DMV rest on his shoulders.

The problem in Week 1?

Daniels is a rookie, and he’s facing one of the NFL’s dominant 2023 defenses. The Bucs defense ranked fifth in 2023, allowing an average of 19.2 points per game. Tampa’s defense also dominated on the ground, allowing 93.5 rushing yards per game.

The Bucs’ front seven, led by Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby, will force Daniels out of the pocket. While Daniels is a fantastic athlete, he’ll get in trouble early.

Here’s another problem for the Commanders: Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is good. Mayfield finished last season with 28 TD passes and 4,044 passing yards. He’s a quality QB no matter what the talking heads or the Cleveland Browns front office says.

The Washington defense ranked last in passing yards allowed in 2023, surrendering an average of 262.2 yards per game. New Washington defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. should help improve that number, but matching up against Mayfield and Chris Godwin won’t be easy.

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Washington Commanders Total Points Under 20.5  (BetMGM)

Did you know that NFL games went under 61.3% through Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season and 12 of 16 2023 Week 1 games went under the total?

It’s a pretty simple handicap. NFL teams have one less preseason game and aren’t playing their starters for more than a few series during these preseason games. Teams don’t want to risk injuries or give game film to the opposition.

Baker Mayfield played one series the entire preseason, going 3/3 for 54 yards. Jayden Daniels saw action in two preseason games, going 10/12 against the Miami Dolphins for 78 yards.

We can’t expect either of these offenses to be in mid-season form.

On the Commanders side, a rookie QB, albeit a very talented rookie, will get his first dose of NFL live-game action. The Tampa defense excelled last season at stopping the run and will keep Daniels in check.

The Commies also start the season very thin at the offensive skill positions. They traded WR Jahan Dotson to the Philadelphia Eagles and didn’t land Brandon Aiyuk.

Incoming veterans Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler should help Daniels throughout the season. New OC Kliff Kingsbury has the pedigree with mobile quarterbacks. But I don’t see the Washington offense finding a lot of Week 1 success.

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Washington Commanders Week 1 NFL Odds: Commanders Not Ready for Primetime

The Washington Commanders will be good at some point—maybe even this season. Heck, I like them to finish second in the NFC East.

But they’re not ready yet. QB Jayden Daniels faces one of the league’s better defenses in Week 1 and will likely struggle. Mayfield and the Bucs do enough to win this game by a touchdown.